Creating the Moving Average/Centered Moving Average

Learning Goal: I’m working on a excel exercise and need an explanation and answer to help me learn.

Data Analytics Center demand forecast: Having an optimal staffing model in place for your Data Analytics team is a great step but without an understanding of what kind of demand for services you might encounter creates an environment of great uncertainty. Luckily you have 24 months of data that represents historical requests for projects and data reporting services. Health system leadership expects an ongoing increase in demand for analytics and reporting

services. The increase in demand that precipitated that need to track the number of requests is the exact thing that prompted leadership to request the creation of a Data Analytics Center.

For this assignment you will use your experience with forecasting methods to:

  1. Select an appropriate forecasting method for the Data Analytics Center (hint: there is seasonal variation in the data)
  2. Perform a forecasting exercise to project future demand (over the next 12 months) using a linear regression model (hint: you need to run regression in MS-Excel)
  3. Analyze the summary measures and evaluate the forecast (recommend action steps).

Data Analytics Forecasting information:

  • Requests seem to increase significantly (~50%) in the quarter leading up to the end of the calendar year. They decrease (~30%) during the heavy vacation months (July & August) in the summer
  • The Director of the Analytics Center is reporting that requests seemed to have increased steadily over the past two years and is concerned about future staffing needs
  • The forecast data is presented in a separate document attached to the assignment

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